The S&P 500 e-mini — the most-traded equity index futures contract globally.
2,513 RTH sessions•Jul 8, 2016 → Jul 8, 2026
Last
$7,448.00
▲+0.05%
Asset
Futures
Sentiment
—
Live Takes
2
Open Markets
2
⚡
Today's Read
Auto-derived from ES session history · updated nightly
8 reads
📅
It's a Mon — most likely a Normal Variation day
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On Mondays, Normal Variation sessions are the most common at 43.0%. Watch for a moderate range expansion past IB but capped at 2× IB.
Normal Variation
42.98%
🎯
The first hour rarely holds
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IB breaks 97.8% of the time — only 2.2% of sessions stay range-bound. Both sides break 28.4% (Neutral days).
Break rate
97.81%
📏
What "normal" looks like
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Average session range is 44.8 pts. The 1-σ band runs 9.3 → 80.3 — anything outside is an outlier day.
Avg range
44.8 pts
⤴
Gaps tend to fill
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Gap up days test prior session high 64.1% of the time. Gap down days test prior low 67.5%.
Gap-up touch
64.13%
📊
VPOC is the leading tell
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When the IB VPOC sits in the upper half, IB high breaks 69.8% of the time. Lower half: IB low breaks 62.5% of the time.
IB high signal
69.75%
⚖️
Long-run bias is bullish
52.9% of sessions close green. Average signed move is +0.04%, with a typical absolute move of ±0.74%.
% up days
52.90%
🌙
The overnight range matters
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93.3% of RTH sessions break either the overnight high or low. The OVN high is tested 60.8% of the time, OVN low 51.7%.
OVN broken
93.27%
↔
Last 5 sessions are sideways
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3 of the last 5 sessions closed green, with a cumulative -0.34% move. No clear trend in the recent window.
5d move
-0.34%
IB Break Rate
97.81%
IB high 66.7% · low 59.5%
Overnight Broken
93.27%
Both 19.2% · None 6.7%
Most Common Day
Normal Var
36.3% · Trend 28.0% · Neutral 28.4%
🔄
Recent Sessions
Last 10 sessions · how each day actually played out
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Latest
Jul 13, 2026-0.43%
Normal Var▼ gap
Open$7,595.50
Close$7,563.00
High$7,610.50
Low$7,551.00
IB resultIB low broke
Jul 14, 2026+0.14%
Normal Var▲ gap
Open$7,579.50
Close$7,590.00
High$7,603.75
Low$7,556.50
IB resultIB high broke
Jul 15, 2026+0.06%
Trend▲ gap
Open$7,612.50
Close$7,616.75
High$7,626.25
Low$7,571.75
IB resultIB low broke
Jul 16, 2026-0.26%
Neutral▼ gap
Open$7,596.75
Close$7,577.25
High$7,615.00
Low$7,548.25
IB resultBoth broke
Jul 17, 2026+0.15%
Normal▼ gap
Open$7,485.25
Close$7,496.75
High$7,539.00
Low$7,473.00
IB resultIB held
Jul 20, 2026-0.65%
Normal Var▲ gap
Open$7,534.50
Close$7,485.75
High$7,552.00
Low$7,478.00
IB resultIB low broke
Jul 21, 2026+0.26%
Normal Var▲ gap
Open$7,526.00
Close$7,545.75
High$7,554.00
Low$7,504.50
IB resultIB high broke
Jul 22, 2026+0.12%
Normal Var▼ gap
Open$7,527.75
Close$7,536.75
High$7,563.50
Low$7,525.25
IB resultIB high broke
Jul 23, 2026-0.13%
Normal Var▼ gap
Open$7,453.50
Close$7,444.00
High$7,486.25
Low$7,411.75
IB resultIB low broke
Jul 24, 2026+0.05%
Trend
Open$7,444.00
Close$7,448.00
High$7,496.50
Low$7,431.50
IB resultIB high broke
Session range
How wide a typical day is, end to end
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Median
50.6
Average
44.8
1-σ high
80.3
Initial Balance range
The first hour's high-to-low spread
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Median
25.9
Average
22.9
1-σ high
41.3
▲
Biggest Up Day
+9.68%
Apr 9, 2025
▼
Biggest Down Day
-5.77%
Apr 4, 2025
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