Auto-derived from ES session history · updated nightly
8 reads
📅
It's a Fri — most likely a Normal Variation day
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On Fridays, Normal Variation sessions are the most common at 37.2%. Watch for a moderate range expansion past IB but capped at 2× IB.
Normal Variation
37.22%
🎯
The first hour rarely holds
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IB breaks 97.7% of the time — only 2.3% of sessions stay range-bound. Both sides break 28.7% (Neutral days).
Break rate
97.70%
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What "normal" looks like
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Average session range is 45.7 pts. The middle 68% of sessions runs 10.3 → 81.2 — anything outside is an outlier day.
Avg range
45.7 pts
⤴
Gaps tend to fill
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Gap up days test prior session high 63.7% of the time. Gap down days test prior low 66.9%.
Gap-up touch
63.73%
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VPOC is the leading tell
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When the IB VPOC sits in the upper half, IB high breaks 70.0% of the time. Lower half: IB low breaks 62.4% of the time.
IB high signal
69.99%
⚖️
Long-run bias is neutral
53.5% of sessions close green. Average signed move is +0.02%, with a typical absolute move of ±0.51%.
% up days
53.51%
🌙
The overnight range matters
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93.2% of sessions break either the overnight high or low. The OVN high is tested 60.9% of the time, OVN low 51.4%.
OVN broken
93.15%
↔
Last 5 sessions are sideways
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3 of the last 5 sessions closed green, with a cumulative +0.73% move. No clear trend in the recent window.
5d move
+0.73%
% Up Days
53.51%
Avg move ±0.51% · Edge +0.02%
Closed Inside Prior Range
41.98%
Sessions finishing inside the prior day's high–low
Touches Prior High
56.29%
Prior low 44.1%
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Recent Sessions
Last 10 sessions · how each day actually played out
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Latest
Sep 25, 2026+0.34%
Normal Var▲ gap
Open$7,777.75
Close$7,804.50
High$7,814.75
Low$7,752.75
IB resultIB high broke
Sep 28, 2026-0.34%
Neutral▼ gap
Open$7,772.75
Close$7,746.50
High$7,786.25
Low$7,726.00
IB resultBoth broke
Sep 29, 2026-0.32%
Normal Var▲ gap
Open$7,757.50
Close$7,732.75
High$7,758.50
Low$7,712.25
IB resultIB low broke
Sep 30, 2026-0.50%
Neutral▲ gap
Open$7,751.75
Close$7,713.25
High$7,782.00
Low$7,709.25
IB resultBoth broke
Oct 1, 2026-0.05%
Neutral▲ gap
Open$7,730.00
Close$7,726.25
High$7,741.25
Low$7,672.75
IB resultBoth broke
Oct 2, 2026-0.13%
Neutral▲ gap
Open$7,789.50
Close$7,779.00
High$7,810.25
Low$7,754.00
IB resultBoth broke
Oct 5, 2026+0.68%
Trend▼ gap
Open$7,778.25
Close$7,831.50
High$7,847.50
Low$7,778.25
IB resultIB high broke
Oct 6, 2026+0.13%
Normal Var▲ gap
Open$7,862.75
Close$7,873.25
High$7,897.50
Low$7,860.25
IB resultIB high broke
Oct 7, 2026+0.18%
Neutral▼ gap
Open$7,837.50
Close$7,851.25
High$7,859.50
Low$7,815.75
IB resultBoth broke
Oct 8, 2026-0.13%
Neutral▼ gap
Open$7,827.25
Close$7,817.25
High$7,850.00
Low$7,783.00
IB resultBoth broke
Session range
How wide a typical day is, end to end
Measure
Value
Typical
Half of sessions come in under this
37.25 pts
Normal band
The middle 68% of sessions
10.29 → 81.15 pts
Unusual above
A session range past this is an outlier day
81.15 pts
Initial Balance range
The first hour's high-to-low spread
Measure
Value
Typical
Half of sessions come in under this
19.00 pts
Normal band
The middle 68% of sessions
4.93 → 41.73 pts
Unusual above
A first hour past this is an outlier day
41.73 pts
▲
Biggest Up Day
+9.97%
Apr 9, 2025
▼
Biggest Down Day
-4.74%
Apr 8, 2025
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